OIL MARKET REVIEW AND A FORECAST FOR LIGHT SWEET CRUDE OIL, MARCH 17-21, 2014

Price of Light Sweet Crude oil was going down the whole week. It started week above $102.00 and got to $97.00/barrel by Wednesday.

A few factors affected correction of the oil prices.

First factor is the end of the heating season in the USA. This winter appeared to be the coldest one in last 20 years. Distillates that are used to heat houses were in high demand. Once winter will finally end, the demand will decrease, which will lead to the oil price decrease.

March-May is usually a low season for the oil quotations. The demand will start growing by the end of May, when the auto season, which indicates the increase of gas consumption, will start in the US.

Last EIA reports provided mixed information for WTI. On one hand, the stock of gas has decreased by 5.230 million barrels, which surpassed experts? expectations (the forecasted number was 2.033 million barrels). On the other hand, the stock of the raw oil has grown by the record amount of 6.180 million barrels, while experts were looking for 2.150 million growth.

Second factor affecting the WTI price is the intention of the US Department of Energy to sell part of the strategic oil reserve for the first time since 90?s.

It became known yesterday, that the USA wants to make a test oil sale of 5 million barrels from its strategic reserve, which is a quarter of daily consumption in the US.

By the end of 2013, the volume of strategic reserve was ~700 million barrels.

Last time the test sale like that took place in 1990, when Iraq invaded Kuwait, and the Persian Gulf War started. 3.9 million barrels were sold then.

The official version that explains test sale is meeting growing demand of the local oil-processing plants coming out of annual maintenance cycles, as well as testing the US capabilities in case world oil market gets disrupted.

The representative of the US Department of Energy said that sale of the part of the strategic oil reserve has been scheduled before and is not related to the situation in Ukraine. However, experts think that US government is trying to exert pressure on Russia.

The previous Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Mr. Alan Greenspan, said in his recent interview "I don't see that we have the capability of preventing it [Russian actions] — except, if we can affect their financial system significantly that it creates deterioration within Russia."

The announcement of the US government of the intention to conduct a test sale led to the decrease of the oil price by over a $1.

If the volume of oil sold from the US strategic reserve gets higher, it will plummet oil quotations.

Oil dynamics will be also affected by other geopolitical events. The recovery of the oil export from Iran is one of the risk factors. Iranian government plans to increase volume of oil extraction to 4 million barrels a day (current volume is 1.2-2.2 million barrels).

Oil looks locally oversold from the technical point of view. Technical indicators give a signal to buy. Nearest rollback targets are located at $98.25, $99.20, $100.200 and $101.50.

If $97/barrel is breached down, then oil can continue decreasing to $95.80 and $95.00.



Click on the image to see full-size

This information is an analytical review of Capital and FX markets. The material presented, and the information contained, is investment research and should in no way be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Investment Firms Law 144(I)/2007 of the Republic of Cyprus, or any other form of personal advice, which relates to certain types of transactions, with certain types of financial instruments.

Čtěte více

• Oil gains for week on supply cuts, demand concerns
  Oil prices increased on Friday, leading to a weekly gain, driven by heightened Chinese demand and supply cuts from OPEC+. This upward momentum persisted despite concerns about the global economy’s weakness and the possibility of future interest rate hikes.
• Oil gets cheaper ahead of China and US data, but OPEC+ cuts limit its decline
  Oil prices in Asian trading on Monday experienced a slight decline as investors exercised caution ahead of upcoming economic data releases from major consumers like the United States and China. However, the expected cuts in crude supply from Saudi Arabia and Russia helped limit the extent of the losses.
• Oil Holds Steady After Gains from Iran Sanctions and Strong Refining Margins
  Oil prices remained steady on Tuesday, following a bump in the previous session driven by fresh U.S. sanctions on Iran and robust global refining margins. Market concerns over potential supply disruptions helped offset uncertainty around demand.
• Oil Holds Steady Amid Ongoing Middle East Tensions and Supply Concerns
  Oil prices remained steady on Wednesday, supported by ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict and production cuts from OPEC+. This balance comes despite projections for ample global supply next year, which put some downward pressure on the market.
• Oil is on track for its fourth consecutive quarterly decline
  Despite oil prices surpassing $75 per barrel on Friday, they are set to record a fourth consecutive quarter of losses. This downward trend is primarily driven by concerns surrounding sluggish global economic activity and reduced fuel demand.
• Oil Jumps 2% After U.S., UK Hit Houthi Targets
  Oil prices climbed 2% on Friday following U.S. and British military actions against Houthi targets in Yemen, in retaliation for the group’s attacks on ships in the Red Sea.
• OIL klesá o 1 % kvůli možnému navýšení dodávek ze strany OPEC 📉
  Cena ropy se propadla na dvoutýdenní minimum poté, co se objevila zpráva, že Saúdská Arábie tlačí na OPEC+, aby zvážil dřívější obnovení produkce ropy s cílem znovu získat podíl na globálním trhu – přesto zatím nepadlo žádné konečné rozhodnutí.
• ⛽ OIL klesá pod 79 USD
  Ceny ropy zaznamenaly během několika posledních seancí silný nárůst a vyskočily o 10 % z vnitrodenních minim dosažených 13. prosince 2023. Včera byl učiněn pokus prolomit oblast nad 80 USD za barel, ale býkům se tyto zisky nepodařilo udržet. a ropa zakončila včerejší obchodování pod touto klíčovou úrovní. Dnes ráno byl učiněn další pokus o prolomení oblasti nad 80 USD, ale také selhal a bylo obnoveno stahování. Pokles se zrychlil brzy odpoledne, když bylo oznámeno, že se Angola rozhodla opustit kartel OPEC.
• OIL MARKET REVIEW AND A FORECAST FOR LIGHT SWEET CRUDE OIL, APRIL 7-11, 2014
  Light Sweet crude oil?s (WTI) price was going up the whole week and got to $100.9/barrel on Friday. WTI rates were su...
• OIL MARKET REVIEW AND A FORECAST FOR LIGHT SWEET CRUDE OIL, MARCH 17-21, 2014
  Price of Light Sweet Crude oil was going down the whole week. It started week above $102.00 and got to $97.00/barrel b...
• OIL MARKET REVIEW AND A FORECAST FOR LIGHT SWEET CRUDE OIL, MARCH 24-28, 2014
  Price of Light Sweet (WTI) oil was growing the whole week, except Tuesday, when it dropped to $97/barrel. Maximum of t...
• OIL MARKET REVIEW AND A FORECAST FOR LIGHT SWEET CRUDE OIL, MARCH 24-28, 2014
  Price of Light Sweet (WTI) oil was growing the whole week, except Tuesday, when it dropped to $97/barrel. Maximum of t...
• OIL mírně posiluje po smíšené zprávě o zásobách EIA
  Zásoby ropy podle EIA: -2,332 mil. (očekávání: 2,4 mil.; předchozí: 4,633 mil.). Zásoby benzínu podle EIA: 0,369 mil. (očekávání: -1,4 mil.; předchozí: -0,151 mil.).
• OIL mírně roste navzdory nárůstu zásob v EIA reportu
  Ropa maže počáteční ztráty a roste téměř o 0,5 % po změně zásob ropy v USA podle reportu EIA. Report ukázal nečekaný nárůst zásob ropy i benzínu, avšak trh reagoval agresivnějším nákupem ropy. Zde jsou čísla z reportu.
• Oil near 10-month high due to tight supply, awaiting US inflation data
  Oil rose on Wednesday, consolidating its position near the ten-month price high it reached during Tuesday’s trading, as the market balanced supply concerns over Libyan production and OPEC+ curbs with global macroeconomic factors.
• OIL obhajuje krátkodobou podporu
  Klesající pohyb na trhu s ropou Brent (OIL), který byl zahájen v první polovině dubna, se zpomalil. Vzájemné letecké údery Íránu a Izraele z minulého týdne znovu zažehly obavy trhu z možné přímé íránsko-izraelské války a širšího konfliktu na Blízkém východě. Izraelský odvetný úder na Írán vyvolal v pátek skokový nárůst cen ropy, ale protože íránské úřady incident bagatelizovaly, zisky byly vymazány a trhy začaly věřit, že konflikt nebude dále eskalovat. Dnešní pokles cen ropy je zřejmě také způsoben absencí dalšího negativního vývoje v regionu během víkendu.
• Oil on track for fifth week of growth
  Oil prices are steady on Friday, but are poised for a fifth straight week of gains as investors are optimistic that healthy demand and reduced supply will keep prices high.
• OIL padá pod 76 USD po vyšších ako očakávaných zásobách ropy podľa EIA
  Zásoby ropy podľa EIA:4,07M (Prognóza: 2,305M, Predošlé: 8,664M). Zásoby benzínu podľa EIA:-3,035M (Prognóza: 1,21M, Predošlé: 2,233M).
• Oil poised for weekly increases following Israel’s rejection of ceasefire proposal.
  Oil prices remained stable on Friday, maintaining their trajectory for weekly gains, as tensions lingered in the Middle East following Israel’s rejection of a ceasefire proposal from Hamas.
• Oil Poised to End Two-Week Slump as Supplies Tighten
  Oil prices were on the verge of ending a two-week losing streak, rising for a fourth consecutive session on Friday. This was attributed to tightening supplies and the anticipation that the OPEC+ coalition of oil producers would prolong output cuts until the end of the year.