OIL MARKET REVIEW AND A FORECAST FOR LIGHT SWEET CRUDE OIL, APRIL 7-11, 2014

Light Sweet crude oil?s (WTI) price was going up the whole week and got to $100.9/barrel on Friday.

WTI rates were supported by EIA report on stock of oil and oil derivatives that appeared to be much better than a forecast.

Gas stock dropped by 1.574 million barrels last week, while experts were waiting for the decrease by 1.086 million barrels.

Traders were happy with the data about the stock of raw oil that had decreased by 2.379 million barrels, while an increase by 1.086 was expected.

Stock of distillates increased by 0.554 million barrels, which appeared to be worse than the predicted decrease by 0.100 million barrels.

Improvement of the unemployment forecast combined with the cuts of the stimulus measures mean that economic situation in the USA is recovering, which will increase a demand for oil.

Let us remind that distillates sales go down when the weather gets warmer, as they are mostly used for heating. So it is recommended to pay attention to the changes of stock of oil and gas.

Another factor that supported oil was the improvement of the situation on the US labor market.

Unemployment level and the number of new jobs are usually published on first Friday of the month. According to the US Department of Labor 192 thousand of jobs were created in March, which appeared to be worse than a forecast of 200 K.

Meanwhile, February data was corrected towards the increase from 175 thousand to 197 thousand jobs.



Click on the image to see full-size

US economy shows good speed of new jobs creation, which increases demand for oil and oil derivatives.

Oil looks locally overbought from the technical point of view. Stochastic indicator gives a signal to sell. If $100 is breached, then oil can drop to $99.30, $98.60 and $97.94.

Oil can keep growing after the technical correction. Nearest resistance levels are located at $101.45 and $102.40.



Click on the image to see full-size

This information is an analytical review of Capital and FX markets. The material presented, and the information contained, is investment research and should in no way be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Investment Firms Law 144(I)/2007 of the Republic of Cyprus, or any other form of personal advice, which relates to certain types of transactions, with certain types of financial instruments.

Čtěte více

• Oil falls amid ongoing uncertainty over OPEC+ supply cuts
  Oil futures initially rose on Monday but reversed course, facing continued pressure from the OPEC+ decision and uncertainty about global fuel demand growth. However, the potential for supply disruptions due to the Middle East conflict limited the losses.
• Oil falls as dollar strengthens and demand concerns
  Oil prices fell during Asian trading on Thursday while the US dollar strengthened on expectations of an interest rate hike.
• Oil falls for third day as industry data suggests large US crude inventory
  Oil prices fell for a third consecutive day as trading began in Asia on Thursday, reacting to a report by industry group API that suggested last week may have seen the biggest weekly increase in U.S. crude inventories in eight months.
• Oil gains for week on supply cuts, demand concerns
  Oil prices increased on Friday, leading to a weekly gain, driven by heightened Chinese demand and supply cuts from OPEC+. This upward momentum persisted despite concerns about the global economy’s weakness and the possibility of future interest rate hikes.
• Oil gets cheaper ahead of China and US data, but OPEC+ cuts limit its decline
  Oil prices in Asian trading on Monday experienced a slight decline as investors exercised caution ahead of upcoming economic data releases from major consumers like the United States and China. However, the expected cuts in crude supply from Saudi Arabia and Russia helped limit the extent of the losses.
• Oil Holds Steady After Gains from Iran Sanctions and Strong Refining Margins
  Oil prices remained steady on Tuesday, following a bump in the previous session driven by fresh U.S. sanctions on Iran and robust global refining margins. Market concerns over potential supply disruptions helped offset uncertainty around demand.
• Oil Holds Steady Amid Ongoing Middle East Tensions and Supply Concerns
  Oil prices remained steady on Wednesday, supported by ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict and production cuts from OPEC+. This balance comes despite projections for ample global supply next year, which put some downward pressure on the market.
• Oil is on track for its fourth consecutive quarterly decline
  Despite oil prices surpassing $75 per barrel on Friday, they are set to record a fourth consecutive quarter of losses. This downward trend is primarily driven by concerns surrounding sluggish global economic activity and reduced fuel demand.
• Oil Jumps 2% After U.S., UK Hit Houthi Targets
  Oil prices climbed 2% on Friday following U.S. and British military actions against Houthi targets in Yemen, in retaliation for the group’s attacks on ships in the Red Sea.
• ⛽ OIL klesá pod 79 USD
  Ceny ropy zaznamenaly během několika posledních seancí silný nárůst a vyskočily o 10 % z vnitrodenních minim dosažených 13. prosince 2023. Včera byl učiněn pokus prolomit oblast nad 80 USD za barel, ale býkům se tyto zisky nepodařilo udržet. a ropa zakončila včerejší obchodování pod touto klíčovou úrovní. Dnes ráno byl učiněn další pokus o prolomení oblasti nad 80 USD, ale také selhal a bylo obnoveno stahování. Pokles se zrychlil brzy odpoledne, když bylo oznámeno, že se Angola rozhodla opustit kartel OPEC.
• OIL MARKET REVIEW AND A FORECAST FOR LIGHT SWEET CRUDE OIL, MARCH 17-21, 2014
  Price of Light Sweet Crude oil was going down the whole week. It started week above $102.00 and got to $97.00/barrel b...
• OIL MARKET REVIEW AND A FORECAST FOR LIGHT SWEET CRUDE OIL, MARCH 17-21, 2014
  Price of Light Sweet Crude oil was going down the whole week. It started week above $102.00 and got to $97.00/barrel b...
• OIL MARKET REVIEW AND A FORECAST FOR LIGHT SWEET CRUDE OIL, MARCH 24-28, 2014
  Price of Light Sweet (WTI) oil was growing the whole week, except Tuesday, when it dropped to $97/barrel. Maximum of t...
• OIL MARKET REVIEW AND A FORECAST FOR LIGHT SWEET CRUDE OIL, MARCH 24-28, 2014
  Price of Light Sweet (WTI) oil was growing the whole week, except Tuesday, when it dropped to $97/barrel. Maximum of t...
• OIL mírně posiluje po smíšené zprávě o zásobách EIA
  Zásoby ropy podle EIA: -2,332 mil. (očekávání: 2,4 mil.; předchozí: 4,633 mil.). Zásoby benzínu podle EIA: 0,369 mil. (očekávání: -1,4 mil.; předchozí: -0,151 mil.).
• OIL mírně roste navzdory nárůstu zásob v EIA reportu
  Ropa maže počáteční ztráty a roste téměř o 0,5 % po změně zásob ropy v USA podle reportu EIA. Report ukázal nečekaný nárůst zásob ropy i benzínu, avšak trh reagoval agresivnějším nákupem ropy. Zde jsou čísla z reportu.
• Oil near 10-month high due to tight supply, awaiting US inflation data
  Oil rose on Wednesday, consolidating its position near the ten-month price high it reached during Tuesday’s trading, as the market balanced supply concerns over Libyan production and OPEC+ curbs with global macroeconomic factors.
• OIL obhajuje krátkodobou podporu
  Klesající pohyb na trhu s ropou Brent (OIL), který byl zahájen v první polovině dubna, se zpomalil. Vzájemné letecké údery Íránu a Izraele z minulého týdne znovu zažehly obavy trhu z možné přímé íránsko-izraelské války a širšího konfliktu na Blízkém východě. Izraelský odvetný úder na Írán vyvolal v pátek skokový nárůst cen ropy, ale protože íránské úřady incident bagatelizovaly, zisky byly vymazány a trhy začaly věřit, že konflikt nebude dále eskalovat. Dnešní pokles cen ropy je zřejmě také způsoben absencí dalšího negativního vývoje v regionu během víkendu.
• Oil on track for fifth week of growth
  Oil prices are steady on Friday, but are poised for a fifth straight week of gains as investors are optimistic that healthy demand and reduced supply will keep prices high.
• OIL padá pod 76 USD po vyšších ako očakávaných zásobách ropy podľa EIA
  Zásoby ropy podľa EIA:4,07M (Prognóza: 2,305M, Predošlé: 8,664M). Zásoby benzínu podľa EIA:-3,035M (Prognóza: 1,21M, Predošlé: 2,233M).