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Oil rises on upbeat demand and positive OPEC report

14.11.2023 11:24  Autor: InvestCentrum  Sekce: Burzovní zpravodajství  Tisk

On Tuesday, oil prices climbed, buoyed by optimistic market fundamentals as highlighted in an OPEC report affirming robust demand. Additionally, concerns about potential supply disruptions intensified due to U.S. considerations regarding restrictions on Russian oil exports.

As of 0722 GMT, Brent crude futures advanced by 23 cents, or 0.28%, reaching $82.75 per barrel. Concurrently, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures saw a rise of 21 cents, or 0.27%, reaching $78.47 per barrel.

“Following the heavy sell-off in the market over the last three weeks, oil has managed to find some support … While fundamentals may not be as bullish as initially thought, they are still supportive, with the market likely to be in deficit for the remainder of this year,” noted ING analysts in an email.

“The surplus we see early next year could even be erased if the Saudis roll over their additional voluntary supply cuts,” they said.

In its monthly report, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) attributed the recent price drop to speculators. Despite this, OPEC slightly increased its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2023 and maintained a relatively high forecast for 2024.

Oil prices reached their lowest point since July last week, fueled by worries about potential declines in demand from the largest oil consumers, the U.S. and China. Chinese consumer prices rose in October to levels not witnessed since the COVID-19 pandemic, while exports for the month declined more than anticipated.

The U.S. Department of Energy intends to purchase 1.2 million barrels of oil to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The move comes after the largest sale of oil from the reserve last year and is expected to help boost demand.

A potential U.S. crackdown on Russian oil exports has the potential to disrupt supplies, providing additional support to oil prices.

The U.S. Treasury Department has taken significant action by sending notices to ship management companies, seeking information on 100 vessels suspected of violating Western sanctions on Russian oil. The move is significant following the introduction of a price cap aimed at limiting oil revenues for Moscow.

Analysts anticipate that ongoing discussions in Iraq about resuming the flow of oil from the pipeline could affect fundamentals by increasing oil supply.

Iraq’s oil minister anticipates reaching an agreement with the Kurdistan Regional Government and foreign oil companies to resume oil production from the Kurdish region’s fields. This includes the resumption of oil exports from the north through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline.

Turkey has suspended exports of 450,000 barrels per day (bpd) of northern oil through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline since March 25, following an International Chamber of Commerce arbitration ruling.

Market highlights include the upcoming release of the International Energy Agency’s latest monthly oil market report.

Additionally, US inflation data is scheduled for release on Tuesday, followed by US producer price index data on Wednesday.

Leon Li, an analyst at Shanghai-based CMC Markets, suggests that oil prices could find support based on factors like the potential impact of the APEC summit on Sino-US relations and whether China will implement further interest rate cuts to bolster its economy.

 

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