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Oil rises on US stock draws, rate hike fears linger

28.06.2023 09:57  Autor: InvestCentrum  Sekce: Burzovní zpravodajství  Tisk

On Wednesday, oil prices inched up following the release of industry data that revealed a larger-than-anticipated decrease in U.S. inventories. This indicated strong demand from the world’s leading oil consumer. However, concerns about potential interest rate increases restrained the extent of the gains.

At 0626 GMT, Brent crude futures experienced a 34 cent increase, equivalent to 0.47%, reaching $72.60 per barrel. Similarly, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures saw a gain of 26 cents, or 0.38%, reaching $67.96 per barrel.

Both Brent crude futures and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures fell around 2.5% in the previous session due to indications of potential interest rate hikes by central banks.

“Tuesday’s slump took Brent and WTI close to support levels that have held through the price dives of the past couple of months,” said founder of oil market analysis provider Vanda (NASDAQ:VNDA) Insights, Vandana Hari. “The floor is being tested again – whether it holds, remains to be seen.”

The six-month spread for Brent, which refers to the price difference between contracts with earlier loading dates and those with later loading dates, reached its lowest level in six months.

Brent’s six-month spread hit a six-month low, while the two-month spread showed a contango price position.

“A widening contango at the prompt end and a weakening backwardation along the Brent and WTI forward curves signals growing market perception of oversupply,” Hari said.

During the week ending on June 23, crude stocks declined by approximately 2.4 million barrels, as reported by market sources referencing data from the American Petroleum Institute (API). This drawdown surpassed analysts‘ expectations of a 1.76 million barrel decrease. The U.S. government’s data on stockpiles is scheduled to be released on Wednesday.

Gasoline inventories recorded a significant decline of around 2.9 million barrels, which contrasts with the estimated drawdown of 126,000 barrels.

Regarding demand, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde stated on Tuesday that persistently high inflation would compel the bank to refrain from signaling an end to interest rate hikes. Increased interest rates can have a dampening effect on economic activity and oil demand.

Market concerns arose as U.S. consumer confidence experienced an increase in June, leading to expectations that the Federal Reserve would need to continue raising interest rates.

According to analysts, markets have been grappling with persistent concerns that higher interest rates will negatively impact global growth and oil demand, making it difficult to dispel these apprehensions.

“However, we continue to expect the market to tighten in second-half 2023 on the back of Saudi supply cuts effective from July with upside risk to prices from current levels,” analysts at National Australia Bank (OTC:NABZY) commodity research said in a note.

In a separate development, Russia’s energy ministry stated that there is an ample supply of gasoline in the domestic market. Companies have reduced exports and ramped up production after successfully completing planned maintenance work.

Russia’s energy ministry confirmed that diesel fuel production at the end of June was 2% higher than the previous year, and stocks reached a historical high.

China’s industrial firms saw annual profits decline for the first five months, reflecting softening demand and squeezed margins. This reinforces the expectation of increased policy support to bolster the post-COVID economic recovery.


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