WEEKLY FORECAST FOR EURCZK: MARCH 10-14, 2014

EURCZK was traded in the narrow corridor around 27.33 korunas for 1 euro.

Czech important news included data about the industrial manufacturing and the final data about GDP in IV quarter of 2013.

PMI by HSBC kept growing in February and increased from 55.9 to 56.5 points. If the index is higher than 50 points, it means that manufacturing is growing.



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The key event of the week for EURCZK was publication of the Czech GDP in IV quarter of 2013.

Czech economy grew by 1.9% compared to the III quarter according to the finalized data. Let us remind that the significant growth in IV quarter happened because of the taxes received from the tobacco industry.



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In order to estimate the real situation in the economy, the Czech Statistical Office uses GVA (gross value added) indicator, which doesn?t include income received from taxes. According to this indicator Czech economy decreased by 0.8% in comparison to 2012.



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Main decrease of the Czech GDP is recorded in the capital investment segment (i.e. equipment, transport and factory improvement expenses etc.)

We can make a conclusion that businesses are delaying the investments, as an economy decrease can occur.

New data about the Czech economy and information about retail sales will define further dynamics of EURCZK.

Consumer inflation level remains one of the Central Bank?s priorities. If inflation slows down, then CNB will conduct further measures to weaken the koruna?s rate.

From the technical point of view, EURCZK looks locally oversold. Stochastic indicator shows a signal to buy. If 27.37 is successfully breached, then pair can get to 27.42, 27.48 and 27.55.



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If price drops under 27.33, it can lead to the EURCZK decrease to the following level: 27.30, 27.27 and 27.22.

This information is an analytical review of Capital and FX markets. The material presented, and the information contained, is investment research and should in no way be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Investment Firms Law 144(I)/2007 of the Republic of Cyprus, or any other form of personal advice, which relates to certain types of transactions, with certain types of financial instruments.

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