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Oil Rises Amid Supply Worries Despite Weak Chinese Data

31.10.2023 09:08  Autor: InvestCentrum  Sekce: Burzovní zpravodajství  Tisk

Oil prices rose in Asian trading on Tuesday after a more than 3% drop in the previous session, as supply concerns triggered by conflict in the Middle East offset disappointing data from China.

As of 0637 GMT, December Brent crude futures contracts, expiring on Tuesday, climbed by 65 cents, representing a 0.74% increase, to reach $88.10 per barrel. Simultaneously, the January Brent crude futures contract, which sees higher trading volume, experienced a 63-cent uptick, marking a 0.73% rise to $86.98.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 67 cents, or 0.81 percent, to $82.98.

Despite the escalation of Israeli attacks on Gaza, oil prices declined on Monday as investors exercised caution ahead of Wednesday’s U.S. Federal Reserve meeting.

“Although it implemented a ground attack, it also retreated very quickly and Iran is currently only resorting to verbal deterrence,” Leon Li, an analyst at CMC Markets based in the Chinese trading hub of Shanghai, made this statement.

“If this evolves into a full-scale invasion and there is involvement from Iran, tighter supply worries could resurface.”

He further noted that prices had experienced a rebound due to a technical correction earlier on Tuesday, emphasizing that the market’s upward potential hinges on whether Israel chooses to broaden its ground offensive.

In a note, ING analysts said, “Disruptions to Iranian oil flows remain the most obvious risk to the market.”

According to them, the potential loss of supply could vary between 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) and 1 million bpd if the United States implements sanctions strictly once more. However, it is worth noting that developments in the Middle East have yet to impact oil supply.

In China, concerns about slowing fuel demand were exacerbated by weaker-than-anticipated manufacturing and non-manufacturing activity data from the world’s second-largest oil consumer.

The official purchasing managers‘ index fell below expectations and retreated below the critical 50-point threshold, delineating the boundary between contraction and expansion.

Prices received some backing due to apprehensions regarding the outlook for crude exports from Venezuela, which are entangled in election uncertainties.

According to analysts at ING, the Supreme Court’s suspension of the opposition’s presidential election results this month is likely to call into question whether the United States will continue to apply sanctions relief to Venezuela.

Additionally, they noted that the U.S. had recently opted to relax sanctions in exchange for a commitment to conduct fairer elections in 2024.

Market participants were closely monitoring the conclusion of the U.S. central bank meeting on Wednesday, even though there is a strong probability that it will maintain interest rates at their current level, as indicated by a poll conducted through CME’s Fedwatch tool.

 

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