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Oil prices stabilize amidst Israel-Hamas conflict assessment

16.10.2023 11:04  Autor: InvestCentrum  Sekce: Burzovní zpravodajství  Tisk

On Monday, oil prices declined following last week’s surge, as investors monitored the potential involvement of other nations in the Israel-Hamas conflict, which could lead to further price increases and adversely impact the global economy.

At 0645 GMT, Brent futures showed a decrease of 33 cents, marking a 0.4% decline to $90.56 per barrel. Similarly, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped 0.3%, or 26 cents, to reach $87.43 per barrel.

On Friday, both benchmarks rose by nearly 6%, experiencing their most significant daily percentage increases since April, as investors factored in the potential for an expanded Middle East conflict.

Over the week, Brent saw a 7.5% increase, while WTI rose by 5.9%.

According to Hiroyuki Kikukawa, president of NS Trading, a unit of Nissan (OTC:NSANY) Securities, “Investors are trying to figure out the impact of the conflict while a large-scale ground assault has not begun after the 24-hour deadline that Israel first notified residents of the northern half of Gaza to flee to the south”.

“The impact that may involve oil-producing countries has been factored into the prices to some extent, but if an actual ground invasion were to occur and have an impact on oil supply, the prices could easily exceed $100 a barrel,” he added.

Global oil and gas supplies have been minimally affected by the Middle East conflict, as Israel has a limited role in production.

The ongoing war between the Islamist group Hamas and Israel presents a substantial geopolitical risk to oil markets, comparable to the concerns surrounding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year. There are apprehensions about any potential escalation involving Iran.

Investors are evaluating the potential impact of an extended conflict on oil supplies from key countries in the world’s top oil-producing region, such as Saudi Arabia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (OTC:CMWAY) analyst Vivek Dhar suggested in a note on Monday that should Tehran be implicated directly in the Hamas attack, it would probably lead to the complete enforcement of U.S. sanctions on Iran’s oil exports.

“The U.S. has turned a blind eye on its sanctions on Iran’s oil exports this year as it looked to improve diplomatic ties with Iran,” he said.

“The 0.5-1 million barrels per day increase in Iran’s oil exports this year – equivalent to 0.5-1% of global oil supply – is at risk of being sidelined if U.S. sanctions are enforced in full.”

Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pledged on Sunday to “demolish Hamas,” as Israeli troops readied to enter the Gaza Strip in pursuit of Hamas militants, whose deadly attacks in Israeli border towns have caused widespread shock.

On Saturday, Iran issued a warning, cautioning that if Israel’s alleged “war crimes and genocide” persist unchecked, the situation could spiral out of control, leading to “far-reaching consequences”.

Amid mounting fears of an escalation in the conflict, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is scheduled to revisit Israel on Monday to discuss “the way forward,” following several days of shuttle diplomacy involving Arab states.

Last week, the U.S. implemented the initial sanctions on owners of tankers transporting Russian oil exceeding the G7’s price cap of $60 per barrel, as part of an initiative to eliminate loopholes in the mechanism aimed at penalizing Moscow for its incursion into Ukraine.

As one of the leading global crude exporters, Russia may face restricted supply due to heightened U.S. scrutiny on its shipments.

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